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2008 - 470 p.

Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario

Kim D.W., Byun H.R., Lee S.M.

As impacts of global warming, aspects of drought over Asia at the end of the 21st century are estimated by Multi-Model Ensemble method from daily precipitation data of fifteen coupled climate model simulations under the SRES A1B scenario assessing the consistency of results among different models. Over most areas, increases in mean precipitation are projected. The increase rate of precipitation is the highest in North Asia and significant in all seasons. The increase over Southern and Eastern Asia (Asian monsoon regions) is caused by the substantial rise in monsoon rainfall. It is also accompanied by the enhanced daily variability of precipitation and the occasional dry winters. However the significant decrease in mean precipitation is predicted over West Asia, mainly for first half of the year. These changes on precipitation climatology are translated to those of drought climatology by using the Effective Drought Index. Over most of the areas for all seasons it is projected that the frequency of drought will be reduced, the duration shortened. Over the Asian monsoon regions, however, the frequency and intensity of extremes will significantly increase, more remarkably during the spring. The increases of the frequency and the intensity are significant over West Asia, especially in extreme summer drought.



Citer cet article    

Kim D.W., Byun H.R., Lee S.M. Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario. In : López-Francos A. (ed.). Drought management: scientific and technological innovations. Zaragoza : CIHEAM, 2008. p. 113-116. (Options Méditerranéennes : Série A. Séminaires Méditerranéens; n. 80). 1. International Conference Drought Management: Scientific and Technological Innovations, 2008/06/12-14, Zaragoza (Spain). http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/a80/00800429.pdf