Fait partie de [OMC44]

2000 - 191 p.

Agricultural policy analysis model for Slovenian agriculture

Stoforos C., Kavcic S., Erjavej E., Mergos G.

The ability to present a coherent and internally consistent position for negotiation depends upon the ability to generate and analyse the consequences of alternative future policy scenarios for the agricultural sector. This paper develops a model to provide economic information that can be used to make policy decisions. In this current period aiming towards a market-oriented economy and the accession to the EU, the Slovenian government will be undertaking various policy measures that will have significant impacts on all spheres of the economy, particularly on the agro-industry. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model that can be used to evaluate a range of changes in agricultural policies, macroeconomic policies, and structural changes. The model used for analysing policy options for Slovenian agriculture (APAM) is in fact a combination of models, a partial equilibrium, multi-commodity supply and demand model (APAS) and a policy analysis matrix (PAM). This innovative combination and interaction between these models was established in order to increase the flow of information through the analysis and estimation of a number of important indicators (Income, DRC, EPC, etc.). A static model like PAM may generate results that are not realistic in a dynamic sense and potentially biased against government policies. To overcome this limitation a connection was established between PAM and APAS to identify likely changes of private profitability in mid term, i.e. if Slovenia would adapt its agricultural policy to reformed CAP as well as for various policy scenarios.

Mots-clés    

MODELE, PAC, POLITIQUE AGRICOLE, POLITIQUE DES PRIX, SIMULATION, SLOVENIE

Citer cet article    

Stoforos C., Kavcic S., Erjavej E., Mergos G. Agricultural policy analysis model for Slovenian agriculture. In : Giannias D.A. (ed.), Mergos G. (ed.). Selected readings on economies in transition. Chania : CIHEAM, 2000. p. 91-102. (Cahiers Options Méditerranéennes; n. 44). http://om.ciheam.org/om/pdf/c44/00800090.pdf